Debate over climate
change produces plenty of excess carbon dioxide, particularly
in the United States, where acceptance of the scientific consensus
on global warming has been slow in coming. Then again, this is
a nation that still questions the scientific consensus on evolution
by natural selection. The debate came to a head this year, with
the near-simultaneous release of An Inconvenient Truth,
former Vice President Al Gore’s new book on climate change,
and the film of the same name, chronicling Gore’s quest
to break through the wall of disinformation, cynical skepticism,
and indifference surrounding the newly christened ‘climate
crisis.’ Our unlikely hero is armed only with his trusty,
scene-stealing Apple laptop and a level of animation not seen
in Gore since his gently self-mocking cameo appearances in Futurama.
Six years ago, a major motion picture about Al Gore’s globe-trotting
climate change slideshow would have been a tepid Saturday
Night Live sketch, not the third-highest grossing US documentary
of all time. But the Al Gore writing a lean and occasionally lyrical
prose in An Inconvenient Truth—a prose eschewing
the purple tendencies of his earlier book, Earth in the Balance,
for compact efficiency—is not the Al Gore of the 2000 election,
nor the bearded mountain-man of his post-2000 years in the wilderness.
This is an Al Gore inspired, an Al Gore possessed, an Al Gore
haunted by his disappointment in 2000; and one determined to prevent
a partisan decision of the US Supreme Court from sealing the fate
of our planet.
I began reading An Inconvenient Truth on the second
day of a cross-continental drive in North America, starting in
the Virginia foothills of the Appalachians and ending in the shadow
of the Rockies in Calgary, Alberta. Although I had just returned
from Oxford—not from Vietnam, as Gore had—I felt a
certain symmetry in reading of Gore’s 1971 cross-country
voyage, and how it alerted him to the natural splendour and epic
scope of the North American countryside. This moment of empathy
is representative of a particular charm of Gore’s book,
a tactic carried over very effectively to the film: the interleaving
of straightforward explanations of the science of climate change
with a more personal journey on Gore’s part from cub journalist
to passionate environmentalist and statesman.
Although there is plenty of science to be explained, Gore’s
book is ultimately visual and visceral, drawing much of its impact
from the juxtaposition of short text with striking images. This
is unsurprising, since the book is in some sense a crystallisation
of the slideshow presentation (and hence intimately related to
the movie, in which a majority of the short 100 minutes are spent
showing segments from Gore’s lectures around the world).
The design of the book itself is superb, with two-page spreads
of an anthill-like Tokyo suburb underwriting the fact that ‘most
of the increase (in population) is in cities,’ and composite
maps of a nocturnal earth covered by fireflies—each a bustling
metropolis of millions—driving home the point that we are
become ‘a force of nature.’ If the book drags at all,
it is in the occasional sections dominated by text. Not because
Gore’s writing is uninspired, but because the reader has
become so addicted to the rich interplay of text and image, to
the delight of folding over a page to discover just how high carbon
dioxide levels will be in forty five years.
The evidence marshalled by Gore for the reality and the magnitude
of the climate crisis is generally unimpeachable, and has received
the imprimatur of the world’s top climate scientists. He
thoroughly anatomises how we know that the average temperature
is increasing (while cautioning that this is a global, not a local
trend), from the mundane example of Antarctic ice cores to dramatic
pictures of calving glaciers and collapsing ice shelves. The latter
are arresting even as static images in the book; they are terrifying
in real time, a set-piece of the film. The connection between
rising temperatures and increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
is presented in an especially charming way. Gore shows a graph
of the carbon dioxide levels and a graph of the global average
temperature over thousands of years. With a wink, he nudges the
audience towards the obvious connection with the story of his
schoolyard chum who ‘discovered plate tectonics’ by
noting that Africa and South America looked like they once ‘fit
together.’ Gore is perhaps too quick to brush over the distinction
between correlation and causation on this matter (a favourite
talking point of climate skeptics) and should have emphasised
that climate models require anthropogenic carbon dioxide
increases in order to reproduce current warming trends.
Gore makes an equally compelling case that climate change is
climate crisis. Besides the now famous pictures of Florida and
Manhattan drowned under higher sea-levels, he presents vignettes
of human misery in every imaginable extreme condition, from the
biblical 2005 floods in Shangdong province, China, to the simultaneous,
earth-cracking drought in nearby Anhui province. And of course
there is Katrina, immortalised in a wordless spread and epitomised
by a wretched body floating in flood-water, a reminder that even
mighty America can be brought low by natural disaster. Gore has
been criticised by some for alarmism, for exaggerating the catastrophic
consequences of climate change. While the amount of land he claims
for the sea falls on the high end of estimates, and the connection
between extreme weather and global warming is more tenuous than
other pieces of Gore’s case, this cry of scare-mongering
does not hold much water. This is because of the highly nonlinear
nature of the climate.
Nonlinearity really demands its own article. As Gore says in
the book and movie, nonlinear is just ‘a fancy way the scientists
have of saying that ... changes are not all gradual.’ More
concretely, it means that the input and the output of a nonlinear
system are not directly proportional. Nonlinear systems are difficult
to treat with the analytic techniques of classical physics and
differential equations, and consequently much work in nonlinear
systems is done numerically, by simulating the system under constraints
provided by available data. Thus climate scientists use computer
simulations to try to understand and predict the behaviour of
the global climate. But nonlinear systems are often highly chaotic—sensitively
dependent on initial conditions. Hence simulations must be done
with exquisite care for their results to have anything but qualitative
value.
Nonetheless, one thing climate simulations do reveal is the ability
of the earth’s delicate balance of ecosystem, weather, ocean
currents, and so forth to lurch violently and rapidly from one
apparently stable state to another. As skeptics are quick to point
out, there are many feedback systems in the climate. Some are
positive, and drive the system out of equilibrium. The tendency
of sea-ice melt to encourage further melting is a pertinent examble;
ocean water stores more heat than the highly reflective sea ice,
and hence acts as a ‘heater’, helping to melt the
remaining ice. Other feedback systems are negative, and tend to
restore the system to an equilibrium condition. Many skeptics
are essentially betting that unknown feedback mechanisms are negative,
and will miraculously conspire to drive our perturbed climate
back into equilibrium, rather than conspiring to drive it into
some new equilibrium that is perhaps not so hospitable to our
current way of life. This is an incredibly irresponsible assertion.
These skeptics may be ignorant of the subtleties of nonlinear
systems, as in the case of many so-called ‘experts’
lacking advanced degrees in climatology or allied quantitative
disciplines. Or perhaps their expertise is clouded by bravely
wishful thinking and the support of those shortsighted corporations
that still view the science of climate change as a danger rather
than an opportunity. Gore does a real service to the public in
clarifying this subtle technical point.

Having read An Inconvenient Truth before seeing the
film, I was given an opportunity to pay careful attention to the
movie's subplot, which has less to do with the rise of earth’s
temperatures than with the rise of Al Gore as a new hero of America’s
anaemic left. As a performer and a teacher myself, I can only
commend and envy Gore’s newfound ease in front of an audience:
without seeming glib (he is terribly but not wearisomely earnest)
Gore exudes enthusiasm for his topic, wearing the manner and the
chic black suit of your favourite college professor like a second
skin. Your favourite college professor is not necessarily your
hippest, and Gore isn’t above the hammy joke (‘I used
to be the next President of the United States’) or the academic
equivalent of a Jackass stunt (launching himself into the air
on a Genie lift to illustrate just how high carbon dioxide
levels will be in 2050). But these quirks make Gore more rather
than less endearing, and effectively prime us for sympathy when
director Davis Guggenheim cuts to scenes of a determined Gore
passing through airport security, or a troubled Gore painstakingly
assembling Keynote slides for his next talk. In the latter shots
Gore’s professorial intensity is exchanged for an almost
prophetic air of burden. Miraculously, this creates actual dramatic
tension in a documentary, tension that for this viewer boiled
over into seething resentment during the bitter minute devoted
to the 2000 election.
Viewers of An Inconvenient Truth cannot help but indulge
in a game of ‘what if', perhaps unfairly pitting the born-again
Gore of 2006 against the tremendously unpopular and beleagured
President of the same year. The movie only gestures indirectly
at such speculations, and Gore is generally delicate in his book
regarding the current administration. He does not, however, spare
the brimstone in indicting the White House’s contemtible
and contemptuous attitude towards the truths of science (for example,
the hiring of oil-company stooge Philip Cooney as chief of staff
for the White House environment office). More cutting is Gore’s
evisceration of the cynical campaign to sow doubt in the minds
of voters regarding climate change. To illustrate the perfidy
of these latter-day sophists, Gore points to an internal memo
from a coalition of special interest groups pushing global warming
skepticism. This memo states as the coalition’s objective
to ‘reposition global warming as theory, rather than fact.’
The crass stink of Madison Avenue wafting off the memo recalls
other famously malodourous public disinformation campaigns: the
sulphrous reek of Big Tobacco’s timeless cancer coverup,
and the barnyard tang of the more recent Intelligent Design circus.
Gore has the anger of a zealot for the charlatan science of global
warming skeptics. Indeed, one of Gore’s most endearing traits,
apparent in the book but obvious in the film, is his tremendous
respect for scientific truth. For every moment of Gore playing
the professor is a moment where he becomes a boundlessly enthusiastic
prize pupil. This is in sharp, tragic contrast to the hedging
of President Bush, who is happy to be undecided about evolution
in the face of all those facts as long as it is politically expedient
to do so.
If An Inconvenient Truth stopped here—if it were
satisfied with a relentless exposition of the science of global
warming and a brutally frank dissection of the flimsy political
manoeuvring intended to hide this threat from the public—it
would be a timely, and necessary book. But it would be a book
for our time, and Gore a man of this moment, not the figure of
historical import many already conjure him to be. Indeed, the
book probably would not have topped the New York Times best-seller
list, nor would the film have broken box office records. In fact,
it all might have been rather depressing.
What elevates the book, and the movie, is the way that Gore’s
personal story and the story of climate change move in carefully
orchestrated counterpoint to articulate a vision of hope and a
challenge for the future. If Gore indulges in fear-mongering,
it is not the cheap partisan tactic that promises a war that will
not end against an enemy that cannot be defined. Gore defines
the enemy—and it is us. He promises a war, but it is a war
against the darker aspects of human nature, the selfish, shortsighted
worldview that drives us to plunder now at the expense of our
neighbors and our children. Gore’s battle will be fought
in the halls of Congress, and in corporate boardrooms; but also
in our voting booths, at our dinner tables, on our electricity
bills. An Inconvenient Truth provides the explicit marching
orders in great detail, particularly the book (the final seventeen
‘green pages’ of tips justify the purchase entirely).
But it is the film that calls out most clearly the moral challenge—and
offers up Gore as an example.
Gore is fond of pointing out that the Chinese logogram for ‘crisis’
consists of the characters for ‘danger’ and ‘opportunity.’
Gore has certainly lived this wisdom. With An Inconvenient
Truth, he has taken the danger of the climate crisis and
made it an opportunity to reinvent himself as the unshakable moral
center of the Democratic Party. Let us hope that we heed Al Gore
on climate change: ‘This is a moral issue.’ And let
us hope that we can follow his example in making an opportunity
of the climate crisis: an opportunity to reinvigorate the pragmatic
and democratic traditions in both America and the wider world;
an opportunity to recognise that ours is a small, fragile ark
in the inky vastness of space. We have every obligation to defend
it. Perhaps, as I did, you will begin by reading this book, seeing
this movie; then replacing an incandescent bulb with a compact
fluorescent light. Perhaps we will end, together, by saving the
world.
Jacob Foster is a DPhil student in mathematical
physics at Balliol College, Oxford, and a PhD student in complexity
science at the University of Calgary. His current interests range
from the mathematical properties of complex networks to the geometry
of the Big Bang.
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